The Olympic seedings at -48 kg tell us these should be the quarter-finals:
1 Scutto (ITA)
8 Lee (KOR)
4 Tsunoda (JPN)
5 Boukli (FRA)
2 Bavuudorj (MGL)
7 Costa (POR)
3 Abuzhakinova (KAZ)
6 Nikolic (SRB)
The semi-finals should therefore be:
Scutto vs Tsunoda
and
Bavuudorj vs Abuzhakinova
If the ranking is obeyed fully, the gold medallist should be Assunta Scutto, beating current world champion Bavuudorj to the top spot in the final. However, this is judo, not any judo but Olympic judo. Rarely are the seedings followed to the letter, although there is often correlating trend, statistical similarity. So, in that case, who is hunting the top 8? Who is poised as cuckoo to throw out one of the incumbents? It could be any of the unseeded hoard behind them, all focussed, trained and experienced.
At the 2024 Abu Dhabi World Championships Tugce Beder (TUR) threw the world number one for waza-ari before being held down. She took a win against her early in 2023 though, also with a waza-ari throw and so both know the 24 year old Turk is capable of upsetting the accepted order of things. She beat Nikolic, 6th seed at the Games, to reach the final in Dushanbe this year and also threw Bavuudorj twice in a dominant victory in Tashkent. She’s afraid of no-one and none of the top seeds will want her in their quarter.
What about the youngest registered athlete in the group, 18 years old and already a senior world medallist and grand slam winner? Tara Babulfath (SWE) has a strong tailored team around her to complement her seemingly natural, calm focus. She works hard, progresses at an alarming rate and shows no signs of fatigue despite a year of balancing junior and senior commitments.
Babulfath beat Masters and 8-time grand slam medallist Catarina Costa (POR) at this year’s worlds, for the bronze medal, showing that she is ready to take on the big names. Her acceleration is something all the top judoka will need to be mindful of, as well as her rapidly improving ne-waza.
The men’s category on day one of the Games is no less uncertain. The Olympic seedings at -60 kg tell us these should be the quarter-finals:
1 Yang (TPE)
8 Khalmatov (UKR)
4 Garrigos (ESP)
5 Nagayama (JPN)
2 Sardalashvili (GEO)
7 Yildiz (TUR)
3 Mkheidze (FRA)
6 Aghayev (AZE)
The semi-finals should therefore be:
Yang vs Garrigos
and
Sardalashvili vs Mkheidze
Neither of these match-ups have happened before, potential new territory for all 4 competitors, making these rounds even more precarous.
If the ranking is obeyed fully, the gold medallist should be Yung Wei Yang, beating current world champion Giorgi Sardalashvili to the top spot in the final. The Georgian is a fireball on the mat, a veritable pinball bouncing off victory after victory but he is also capable of dropping into a hole while still maturing. 21 is no age at all and Yang has already collected two Olympic experiences, including a silver medal.
Below the top two and even the top 8 is a crowd of the world’s best, most experienced judoka. Yeldos Smetov (KAZ), unseeded, is a world champion, a double Olympic medallist and one of the most acrobatic and resilient fighters on the circuit. At 31 he may not be in his prime but he is among the toughest opponents to beat both technically and mentally and he will know this is his last Games. He has everything to play for.
Won Jin Kim (KOR) is also worth a mention, another veteran of the category. He’s a 3-time Masters medallist, winning the prestigious title in 2021. This will be his 4th Olympic appearance and despite there being no medal yet, his two senior world medals and 21 World Judo Tour medals back up his campaign. He’s a free agent at the draw and could land anywhere; no-one’s idea of an ideal first contest.
At -60 kg the top 8, at first glance, look like they should remain the top 8 throughout the day, all the way to the record books but this is unlikely to be the position at the close of the day. Wolczak (ISR), McKenzie (JAM), Enkhtaivan (MGL), Tsjakadoea (NED), Ruziev (UZB), they can all throw and can all take out higher ranked judoka.
The answer will be finalised in just 5 day’s time. Who do you think will win the medals in the lightest categories?