The Olympic seedings at -52 kg tell us these should be the quarter-finals:
1 Keldiyorova (UZB)
8 Ballhaus (GER)
4 Buchard (FRA)
5 Giles (GBR)
2 Krasniqi (KOS)
7 Primo (ISR)
3 Giuffrida (ITA)
6 Pupp (HUN)
The semi-finals should therefore be:
Keldiyorova vs Buchard
and
Krasniqi vs Giuffrida
If the ranking is obeyed fully, the gold medallist should be Diyora Keldiyorova, beating current -48 kg Olympic champion Krasniqi to the top spot in the final. However, the spanner in the works is the queen of all the unseeded judoka at this Games, Uta Abe (JPN). Ninth in the world rankings, she iss a free radical set to unravel all the work of this cycle for someone who doesn’t deserve that draw; it’s a raw deal for anyone.
Or is it? The consensus is that Abe will be Olympic champion again in Paris, a hot topic of conversation. She’s the current champion and with 4 world titles to support her claim, having not lost a single contest since 2019. That loss was against Paris home athlete Buchard at the 2019 Osaka Grand Slam, a result neither is likely to forget in a hurry. Due to Abe not being seeded, they could meet in the first round at the Champs de Mars, forcing one of them to go home before lunch. For any of the top 8, that could be a disastrous meeting.
However, the opposite is also true; in Paris Buchard will have the crowd, the familiarity and the famous home-ground advantage so often talked about as a deciding factor in tough situations. Is Buchard the only one in the group who could stop Abe?
Maybe Keldoyorova, a tactical encyclopaedia, in conjunction with coach Marko Spittka, can do the job. She’s made it her mission to tick off the big wins one by one, collecting useful information and incorporating it into her preparation. She’s a consistent medallist at every level and in Paris she will be a strong force, a challenge for anyone, including Abe, Krasniqi and the current world champion Giuffrida. No-one is safe in Keldiyorova’s space.
How about the young Swiss athlete, emerging at some speed and beginning to take names. She could be peaking at exactly the right time. Binta Ndiaye has met 3 of the top 8 this year, beating Ballhaus along the way. She’s determined, powerful and undoubtedly on a climb, on to podia, up the rankings and into the Swiss history books. At only 19 she’s still a junior but has placed at the most recent senior worlds, has results on the World Judo Tour and has already overcome a strong domestic challenge for the place. She’ll be a dangerous first fight for someone.
The men’s category on day two of the Games is more structured as Hifumi Abe is seeded, bringing less uncertainty than in his sister’s group.
1 Denis Vieru (MDA)
8 Matteo Piras (ITA)
4 Hifumi Abe (JPN)
5 Nurali Emomali (TJK)
2 Margvelashvili (GEO)
7 Garcia Torne (ESP)
3 Yondonperenlei (MGL)
6 Willian Lima (BRA)
The semi-finals should therefore be:
Vieru vs Abe
and
Margvelashvili vs Yondonperenlei
The prospective quarter-final and semi-final entries will already be working on their tactics for that contest, searching for the gap in Abe’s game, if there is one! If the rankings were to be obeyed though, the gold medallist would be Denis Vieru, beating current European champion and world bronze medallist Vazha Margvelashivi to the top spot in the final. This however, is not likely if the wins and losses of the past are anything to go by.
Hifumi Abe has not lost a contest in 5 years and there is no-one in the -66 kg category at the Paris Games who has ever beaten him. Maruyama beat him once in 2018 and then once in the semi-final of the 2019 Tokyo World Championships but Maruyama isn’t in Paris to worry about. The only other loss was against Lombardo (ITA) who is now in the category above.
So, who else might pose a problem? Double Olympic medallist and student of the great Min-ho Choi (KOR), Baul An, is looking for the elusive gold, he’s made no secret of it. He’s 30 years old, has been world champion, and wants to close his career on the highest of all steps. He has stylish judo and exhibits each of our judo values naturally and consistently, a great champion in this star-studded gathering of athletes.
What about the unpredictable Walide Khyar, the host’s selection for Paris 2024? He always brings drama to the tatami, is spectacular and innovative but he also loses, often! Win or lose, he will give it everything, especially at home and the spectators will cheer for him loudly. From the top 8 in Paris, Khyar has lost to Emomali and Abe this year but has beaten Garcia Torne, Lima and An this year or last and poses a threat to everyone, due to his style and the already-mentioned home-ground advantage.
The answer will be finalised in just 6 day’s time. Who do you think will win the medals on day 2 in the French capital?